The nation is now nearly two years into a recession and the economy is still staggering from the housing market and banking crisis.

Locally, the unemployment rate has skyrocketed to 18 percent and countywide sales tax figures continue to show consumers are not spending like they have in the past.
But are there any signs the economy is immerging from the doldrums and what will it take to get the national and local economy moving again?

Many local business leaders and government officials believe the vicious cycle of job losses and low consumer confidence needs to end before the economic train can get back on track.
"It's a double-edged sword," said Volunteer Federal Bank Vice President Tim Moree.
Moree said consumer confidence needs to improve locally and nationwide for a real economic upturn to occur but that's difficult with all the layoffs he concedes.

For industries and businesses to start hiring again, they need to see consumers loosening the grip on their wallets, Moree points out.
County Mayor Allan Watson said the county's transition to more of an industrial economy the last few decades helped the quality of life in the county.

But he said the county has been hit hard by job losses in the boating industry in particular after local leaders worked so hard to bring those better paying jobs to the area.
Watson said it's very hard to recruit new industry in the current economic landscape.
Most companies want free land, infrastructure and tax breaks, he said.

The county has the capacity to make concessions for land, but Watson said it's difficult to give away the farm with tax breaks when the county needs that money to grow.
But Watson retains hope things will get better.
"It will come back," he said
And there are a few signs manufacturing jobs for the boat, auto supplies and other industry in the county could soon begin coming back.

MasterCraft is calling back about 175 workers and restarting production next week.
JTEKT in Vonore recently called back 24 of 140 people who had been furloughed in February.
County Economic Development Director Shane Burris said his office continues to try to market land and vacant buildings in the area.

With the construction of the biofuel plant in Vonore and a national emphasis on green and alternative energy, Burris sees that market as a potential area for the county to gain jobs in the coming years.
Moree said he at least does not believe things are getting worse when it comes to the local economy as viewed through the eyes of the banking industry.

He says economic upturns and downturns are all part of the business cycle.
"We had it good for a long time and now it's adjusting itself," he said.
When the economy does begin a more definitive upswing, most economists believe the recovery will come in stages and vary from business to business and even state to state.

According to Moody's Economy.com, a leading independent economic analysis company, Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, Texas and Washington could be the first five states to see economic recovery.
Moody's Economy.com said the next wave of recovering states could be Alabama, Georgia, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota and South Dakota.

Tennessee, according to the report, could be in the third wave of recovering states in the second quarter of 2010 that also includes Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Wyoming.

Moody's Economy.com said the states with the most technology capacity will be the first states to see recovery.

tommy.millsaps@advocateanddemcrat.com | 337-7101